A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
